Updated 10/20/2024 5:37 PM

CORVALLIS — In the topsy-turvy world of today’s college football, expectations can change month to month and even week to week.

Case in point is Oregon State. After losing its coach to Michigan State, much of its talent to the NFL and the transfer portal, and its conference affiliation after last season, the Beavers were clearly going to be playing in a different sphere than they were as an upper-level member of the Pac-12 in recent years.

But on the day his hiring was announced last November, new coach Trent Bray proclaimed his first OSU team as a contender for the CFP playoffs. I’m sure he believed. And a portion of Beaver Nation believed.

But that simply was not going to happen. Almost all of the major talent from Jonathan Smith’s last Oregon State squad is spread out across the country, from Miami to Florida State to Michigan State to USC to Texas. In its place are some good players, but not the kind that take you to the point where you are battling Oregon and Texas and Ohio State and Tennessee for supremacy in the land of college football. Or even with the likes of Boise State or Nevada-Las Vegas or a few other schools for the Group of Five’s spot in the Final Dozen.

So scale that down to what I predicted prior to the season — an 8-4 record, with some good wins but losses to Oregon, California, Boise State and UNLV (I gave the Beavers the edge over Washington State at home).

The latter defeat came to pass Saturday night at Reser Stadium, with the Runnin’ Rebels holding on for a 33-25 victory to go 6-1 — 4-0 on the road — and to the precipice of a national ranking heading into next Saturday’s Mountain West showdown with Boise State.

Oregon State played better defensively than it had in a 42-37 loss at Nevada the previous week, and through a second-half lapse found enough offense to put an 11th-hour scare into the visitors from Sin City.

The Beavers, minus starting running back Jam Griffin and a load of defensive starters and rotation players to injury, didn’t embarrass themselves. The Rebels are good, with a brilliant-running quarterback in Haji-Malik Williams, a strong rushing attack and a defense that is solid in every area. They came to Corvallis averaging 45 points and 262 yards rushing, ranking fourth nationally (with the Beavers fifth at 256) in the latter category.

Oregon State held them to 33 points and 188 yards on the ground, and seven of the points came courtesy of an OSU fumble that gave UNLV the ball at the Beavers’ 19.

Even so, I don’t agree with Bray’s post-game appraisal that the loss can be chalked up to “self-inflicted stuff.”

Yes, there was the costly fumble by Anthony Hankerson, and a second-quarter blocked punt by UNLV that resulted in a field goal on the final play before halftime to trim Oregon State’s lead to 17-16 and turn momentum the Rebels’ way.

But that was OSU’s only turnover, and there was only one penalty for 10 yards. Quarterback Gevani McCoy was sacked six times — five in the second half. And though Bray lamented that the Beavers “didn’t (pass) protect like we normally do,” the Rebels’ veteran defensive front — four seniors on the line and a senior and junior at linebacker — had something to do with that.

After collecting 243 yards total offense in the first half, Oregon State went dormant with one first down and 10 yards through the third quarter. By the time the Beavers picked it back up, they were trailing 33-17 with 4:38 to play.

And as many in the crowd of 35,195 headed for the exits, the Beavers proved again they are not quitters. McCoy led an 11-play, 75-yard scoring drive, and when he found tight end Jermaine Terry in the end zone for a two-point conversion, UNLV’s lead was 33-25 with 2:39 left.

With three timeouts and the two-minute warning remaining, Bray decided against an onside kick and had Everett Hayes kick it deep. On third-and-five from the UNLV, Williams’ pass was intercepted by Jack Kane, and Oregon State took over at its 46 with 1:42 remaining.

With the crowd back into it, the Beavers drove to the Rebels’ 6-yard line. With three seconds left, McCoy threw to Terry in the left corner of the end zone. The 6-4, 245-pound senior was tripped up by the feet of UNLV safety Jalen Catalon and the ball fell to the turf. No flag. No review. Game over.

Terry was sure it should have been pass interference. McCoy thought so, too. Bray said he didn’t get a good look at the play.

“I wanted to,” he said when I asked about it, allowing himself a tight smile. “But it’s probably best I didn’t.”

Even if a penalty had been called, the Beavers would have had to score a TD, then make good on a 2-point conversion just to get the game to overtime. It was a long shot — but so was OSU making it a game after falling behind by 16 points in the closing minutes.

“I liked the way we battled — never have any question about that,” Bray said.

It’s the way Bray was as an All-Pac-10 linebacker at OSU, and the way he coached defense on his way to getting the head job at his alma mater. He is competitive as all get-up, and he demands that of his players. I’d go in a foxhole with the guy any time.

The Beavers did plenty of good things Saturday. McCoy’s 71-yard scramble to pay dirt down the left sideline in the second quarter was a sight to behold. Trent Walker, the sure-handed junior walk-on from Beaverton High, caught nine more passes for 88 yards to give him a team-high 46 receptions for 468 yards this season. Darrius Clemons, the junior transfer out of Westview High, snagged four for 70, including a 44-yarder to the UNLV 4 on OSU’s first possession.

McCoy — the junior transfer from Idaho — is a competitor. He rushed for 122 gross yards on 10 carries, completed 21 of 37 passes for 231 yards and hung in there while taking plenty of shots from UNLV’s defense.

Hankerson took some punishment, too, carrying 17 times for 61 bruising yards against a Rebel front that yielded few holes. But he didn’t back down.

On defense, edge rusher Nikko Taylor was all over the place, with eight tackles, half a sack and a forced fumble. Freshman inside linebackers Isaiah Chisom and Dexter Foster had eight and five tackles, respectively. And a secondary featuring senior Tyrice Ivy, juniors Jack Kane, Mason White and Skyler Thomas, sophomore Andre Jordan and true freshman Exodus Ayers did its job well. Senior safety Alton Julian, who has been mostly out since an ACL knee injury during the 2021 season, even saw some significant action.

“There were a lot of good plays by the back end,” Bray said. “Those guys continue to improve.”

The problem is, the Beavers needed a victory at Nevada to have a reasonable chance to get to 8-4 this season. The rest of the schedule is formidable. California, the opponent next Saturday at Berkeley, is 3-4, but its losses are by a combined nine points. After that comes San Jose State, 5-2 with its setbacks by a collective seven points.

Then it’s at Air Force; the Falcons, 1-6, have lost six in a row after beating FCS foe Merrimack College in their opener. The schedule finishes against Washington State — 6-1, with its only loss to Boise State — and on the blue turf at Boise, the Broncos 5-1 and ranked No. 15, with the only defeat 37-34 to now-top-ranked Oregon in Eugene.

Let’s say Oregon State beats Air Force and San Jose State but loses to Cal, Wazzu and Boise State. That would be 6-6 and bowl-eligible, if barely.

With Griffin rumored to be out for the season with an apparent knee injury (Bray guards injury information as if it were the routing number for his checking account ) and the defense still hampered by injuries, it is hard to project a record better than that for him in his first season at the OSU helm.

But maybe the coach has some tricks up his sleeve for the Beavers down the stretch.

Says Kane: “Our coach always harps on the definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result.”

Given the FBS landscape these days, anything better than a .500 record would be a rousing show of sanity.

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